Early NBA Season Surprises and Team Performances 2026-27
Explore early NBA season surprises and team performances with analysis of breakout players, injuries, and what to watch next in 2026-27.
Early NBA Season Surprises: What’s Real, What’s Noise, and What to Watch Next
The quick list
Best overall: Memphis Grizzlies, for fans deciding whether an unexpected hot start has real lineup and rotation support.
Best value: Golden State Warriors, for a team getting major production from rookie Yaxel Lendeborg beside Stephen Curry.
Best injury-adjusted result: Oklahoma City Thunder, for readers weighing a 5-2 record against a suddenly fragile rotation.
Best contender signal: Los Angeles Lakers, for anyone deciding whether Luka Dončić’s opening scoring barrage has moved into the MVP tier.
Best process bet: Toronto Raptors, for readers who trust turnovers, rebounding, and shot volume over an early win-loss record.
What you are deciding after two weeks
You are not trying to crown a champion from six or eight games. You are deciding which starts are built on repeatable possessions, which teams have a structural problem, and which box-score spikes will fade once defenses collect more film.
That calls for a different standard than the standings. A 5-2 team can be vulnerable if it cannot rebound, protect the rim, or survive one missing ball-handler. A 3-4 team can still look healthy if its best lineups generate quality shots.
The Athletic’s early-season framing around the Wizards, Warriors, and other surprise teams is the right starting point: early success deserves attention, but it also needs a mechanism behind it. [2] The mechanism is often lineup fit, not momentum.
| Team or player | Early signal | What supports it | Main trade-off or warning sign | What to watch next |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | Ty Jerome’s scoring surge | Multiple creators, stronger frontcourt support, young wings contributing | Jerome’s shotmaking pace is unlikely to stay this extreme | Whether Jerome can continue creating efficient looks when defenses load up |
| Golden State Warriors | Yaxel Lendeborg’s 23 points and nine rebounds per game | Curry’s gravity gives Lendeborg room to attack mismatches and cut | Kristaps Porzingis’ decline leaves frontcourt questions | Whether Lendeborg can maintain production against playoff-level scouting |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Dončić at 38.3 points per game, Lakers 6-2 | Elite pull-up creation and a top early offense | MVP arguments are unstable in November | Whether the Lakers defend and score when Dončić sits [[6]](https://odyn.bet/nba/mvp-odds "NBA MVP Odds 2026-27: Luka Doncic Leads at +200 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 5-2 despite major injuries | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and established organizational depth | Williams and Wallace have long-term injuries, Holmgren’s timetable is unclear | Whether OKC can maintain size and secondary creation [[4]](https://www.nba.com/news/thunders-jalen-williams-has-fractured-leg-dislocated-ankle-and-will-need-surgery "Thunder’s Jalen Williams has fractured leg, dislocated ankle and will need surgery |
| Toronto Raptors | Top-10 offense and defense | Offensive boards, low turnovers, forced turnovers | League-high foul rate can swing with officiating | Whether the defense stays physical without sending teams to the line |
| Phoenix Suns | Miles Bridges integration has gone poorly | Few positive lineup indicators so far | Thin margin for error and unstable guard play | Whether Collin Gillespie can stabilize the offense |
| Sacramento Kings | Darius Acuff’s huge shot volume | Rookie confidence and on-ball reps | Volume without efficiency or playmaking structure | Whether Acuff reduces attempts and involves veterans |
Memphis has the strongest surprise case
Memphis is the early surprise we would take most seriously. Ty Jerome’s scoring has been the headline, including 45-, 28-, and 31-point outbursts, but the better sign is that the Grizzlies are getting contributions beyond one hot guard. [12]
SB Nation identified Jerome as an early All-Star-level performer, while also noting rookie Cameron Boozer, Isaiah Stewart, Cam Spencer, and Jaylen Wells as meaningful rotation pieces. That creates more than one avenue for a good offensive possession. [3]
Jerome’s production still requires context. He has been around 30 points per game in the earliest returns, and Hoops Reference argued he could be a credible 20-point scorer even after the initial heater cools. A 30-point average is not the expectation.
The repeatable version is a controlled guard who gets to his spots, punishes drop coverage, and moves the ball quickly enough to keep bigger defenders from setting their feet. If Jerome becomes that, Memphis does not need MVP-level scoring from him.
Stewart also changes the team’s math. A frontcourt player who can finish inside, space selectively, and offer supplemental rim protection reduces the burden on every perimeter defender. That is the type of addition that travels from October to April.
Golden State’s rookie has changed its ceiling
The Warriors’ surprise is different. Yaxel Lendeborg was expected to be NBA-ready, but not necessarily a 23-point, nine-rebound player immediately trusted with major offensive responsibility beside Curry.
His value is not only the scoring average. Curry forces defenses to top-lock, switch late, and chase movement away from the ball. That creates open lanes for a forward who can cut, attack a closeout, and finish through contact.
SB Nation described Lendeborg’s emergence as reinvigorating Golden State during Curry’s later-career window, and that feels fair. [3] A rookie who can be a credible second or third option keeps the Warriors from asking Curry to solve every possession.
Still, there is a size cost. The same evaluation raised concern about Porzingis’ condition and Golden State’s ability to answer its issues in the middle. A high-scoring forward does not automatically solve defensive rebounding or rim protection.
That makes Lendeborg a sustainable positive, not proof that Golden State has solved its roster. We would believe the player before we declare the team complete.
Dončić has the early MVP lead, not the award
The Lakers’ 6-2 start has been powered by the most obvious individual story in the league. The Athletic reported Dončić at a league-leading 38.3 points per game, a scoring level that puts him at the front of any early MVP conversation. [6]
The case is easy to see on possessions. Dončić can generate a paint touch or a pull-up three without needing an advantage created for him first. That gives Los Angeles a stable late-clock option every night.
Hoops Reference had him at 36 points and eight assists per game in an earlier snapshot, while The Athletic’s subsequent figure was 38.3 points. [6] The specific average has changed quickly, which is exactly why the broader point matters more.
The Lakers have reportedly had the second-ranked offense in the early going, and Dončić has been its engine. But an MVP case will eventually require more than scoring volume, especially if the defense gives back the points he creates.
The betting market also had Dončić as the early favorite at +200, ahead of Victor Wembanyama at +220 and Gilgeous-Alexander at +400. [6] Those odds reflect expectation and early production, not a settled hierarchy.
Oklahoma City’s record deserves more credit than its roster outlook
It is too harsh to say Gilgeous-Alexander cannot carry Oklahoma City because one depleted lineup lost badly to Dallas. The Thunder are 5-2 despite an injury report that would strain any contender. [5][10]
Jalen Williams suffered a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula that requires surgery, and NBA.com reported he is likely out for the season. [4] Cason Wallace needs surgery for a torn labrum, while Holmgren has right patellar tendinitis without a clear return timeline. [5]
Those absences remove a secondary creator, a point-of-attack defender, and a high-level big from a team built around lineup flexibility. OKC can still win regular-season games because Gilgeous-Alexander gives it an elite offensive floor.
The concern is less about whether Shai can carry a random Tuesday game. It is whether the Thunder can field enough two-way size and enough secondary decision-making for four playoff rounds. Those are different tests.
The Raptors’ profile is quieter, and stronger
Toronto may be the team most likely to look better in process metrics than in highlight packages. SB Nation had the Raptors top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, with excellent marks in offensive turnover percentage, offensive rebounding percentage, and defensive turnover percentage. [3]
That is a valuable combination. Fewer giveaways protect your own defense, offensive rebounds extend possessions, and forced turnovers create transition chances before an opponent’s defense can organize.
Scottie Barnes’ continued growth as an interior scorer gives Toronto a half-court foundation, while Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett have covered scoring after Kawhi Leonard’s early shutdown. The question is whether the foul rate undercuts all that good work.
Toronto reportedly fouls more than any team in the league. [3] Physicality can be an advantage, but a defense dependent on whistles going its way becomes vulnerable in matchups where opponents attack the rim and put pressure on the officials.
The teams where the worry is structural
Sacramento’s Darius Acuff is tied with Dončić for the league lead in field-goal attempts per game, according to SB Nation. [3] That is not a compliment by itself when the rookie’s efficiency and defensive impact have lagged behind his volume.
The Kings need a possession hierarchy. Acuff can still develop into an aggressive lead guard, but he cannot be asked to solve every stalled action while veteran teammates become spectators. That is how empty stat lines become a team identity.
Phoenix has a similarly uncomfortable fit problem. The early Miles Bridges acquisition has not helped the Suns’ rhythm, and Hoops Reference cited an early on-off split of Phoenix being 31 points worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
On-off data from a few games is highly volatile. The warning is in the film-level description: a team already short on clean decision-making cannot absorb inefficient scoring, defensive breakdowns, and crowded driving lanes from a high-usage forward.
Utah’s 1-4 start also carries more weight than a shooting slump because the roster has little center depth with Jusuf Nurkić and Jaren Jackson Jr. injured. [3] Lauri Markkanen’s early 16 points per game on 39 percent shooting adds pressure, but the center issue changes every defensive coverage.
The Clippers’ weaknesses are equally visible. SB Nation pointed to Garland turnovers, Wagler’s difficulty scoring inside the arc, and inadequate frontcourt size. [3] Those problems feed each other, because turnovers deny a small team the chance to set its defense.
Smaller stories that could become rotation stories
Landry Shamet’s role with the Knicks deserves more attention than his box-score totals might earn. The Athletic reported that coach Mike Brown has leaned on Shamet’s off-ball creation, a skill that helps an offense when the primary stars are not hitting shots. [6]
That means relocation, timely cuts, and quick decisions after the catch. New York has started cold offensively, with Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges struggling to make shots, so dependable off-ball movement can keep a possession from dying.
Houston is another team to separate from its record. Fred VanVleet’s own shooting has reportedly been uneven, but his shooting threat and passing feel can still organize a Rockets offense that previously lacked steady backcourt direction.
The larger Houston concern is postseason proof. Axios noted the Rockets opened the year hoping to make a longer playoff run after repeated first-round exits. [1] Better regular-season offense is meaningful, but it will not answer that question until the half-court gets tighter.
Who each option suits
Memphis suits you if you want to invest in an early surprise with several supporting pieces. Jerome will cool off, but the Grizzlies have enough emerging contributors that the team can remain good without asking him to average 30.
Golden State suits you if you believe rookie skill can immediately matter in a winning environment. Lendeborg has a clear role beside Curry, though you should remain cautious about the Warriors’ interior answers against bigger opponents.
The Lakers suit you if you are tracking the MVP race. Dončić has earned the early lead through historic-level scoring, but the stronger decision is to monitor the Lakers’ non-Dončić minutes and defensive consistency.
Oklahoma City suits you if you value record quality under difficult circumstances. The Thunder have handled injuries better than the loudest reactions suggest, but the Williams, Wallace, and Holmgren absences lower the margin for error.
Toronto suits you if you prefer teams that win the possession battle. The Raptors are forcing turnovers, limiting their own mistakes, and extending offensive trips, though their foul rate is the number most likely to swing their defense.
Sacramento, Phoenix, Utah, and the Clippers suit you only as watch-list teams for now. Each has a problem that reaches beyond a few missed shots, whether it is shot selection, frontcourt size, lineup fit, or an injury-created hole at center.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which NBA teams are surprising in the early 2026-27 season?
Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors stand out as early surprises. Memphis benefits from multiple contributors beyond Ty Jerome’s scoring surge, while Golden State gains unexpected production from rookie Yaxel Lendeborg alongside Stephen Curry. Oklahoma City Thunder’s 5-2 record is also notable given significant injuries.
What players have emerged as early season breakout stars in the NBA?
Ty Jerome of Memphis has drawn attention with multiple high-scoring games, and Yaxel Lendeborg of Golden State is producing strong numbers as a rookie. Luka Dončić leads the scoring race with 38.3 points per game, making an early MVP case, though this is still tentative.
How do injuries affect NBA team performances early in the season?
Injuries have significantly impacted the Oklahoma City Thunder, who lost Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and possibly Chet Holmgren to long-term absences. Despite this, the Thunder have maintained a 5-2 record, though their lineup ceiling and depth are concerns. Injuries across the league complicate team strategies and player availability.
Are early NBA season performances sustainable throughout the year?
Early performances often require context beyond win-loss records. For example, Memphis’s Ty Jerome’s scoring pace is unlikely to remain at its current extreme, and teams relying on single hot scorers or weak rebounding may struggle to sustain success. Repeatable success depends on structural factors like lineup fit and quality possessions.
What factors contribute to NBA teams' early season success or struggles?
Sustainable success is linked to lineup construction, role fit, and balanced contributions rather than isolated scoring bursts. Memphis’s depth and Golden State’s use of Curry’s gravity to create space for Lendeborg exemplify this. Conversely, teams like Sacramento and Phoenix show early struggles tied to lineup issues and unstable guard play.
How we researched this
This article was assembled from 1 video source, 5 published articles, 13 cited references.
Nothing here is based on hands-on testing. Where a figure or finding appears, it belongs to the source cited beside it, and the writing says so rather than implying otherwise. Every source is listed below so you can check it.
Sources
1 Overreaction For EVERY NBA Team’s Start To The Season, Hoops Reference
The Bounce: Are the Wizards, Warriors and other early NBA successes for real?, The Athletic NBA
NBA Power Rankings for all 30 teams after opening weeks of new season, SB Nation NBA
10 players to know from NBA season's first 2 weeks, including Ty Jerome and lefty Belgians, The Athletic NBA
Who's the NBA MVP? Coach of the Year? These are the way-too-early leaders, The Athletic NBA
Landry Shamet has made a 'good knack' for off-ball creation. The Knicks have benefited, The Athletic NBA
Houston Rockets open NBA season with hopes of longer playoff run
Cooper Flagg Stats 2026-27: Season Averages, Game Log and Career Numbers
Thunder’s Jalen Williams has fractured leg, dislocated ankle and will need surgery | NBA.com
NBA Opening Week Overreactions: Giannis, Jaylen Brown, the Thunder, and More - The Ringer
9 NBA overreactions after one game for every team - NBA News
Eight Overreactions From the First Week of the 2026-27 NBA Season
Watch Early NBA Season Surprises and Team Performances on Youtube
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